Instructor: Chun-Hung Chen
Email: cchen9@gmu.edu
Office: Science & Tec II, Room 319
Phone: 703-993-3572
Fax: 703-993-1521
Office Hours: Tuesday 4:00 - 6:00 PM.
Course Description:
A survey of probabilistic methods for solving decision problems under uncertainty. Probability review, decision theory, queuing theory, inventory models, reliability, decision theory, and simulation are covered. Emphasis is on modeling and problem solving..
Prerequisites: STAT 346, or MATH 351, or equivalent.
Grading: Homework 15%; Two exams 60% (max{midterm, final} 35%, min{midterm, final} 25%), Quiz in class 25% (two lowest ones will be dropped).
Required Text: W. L. Winston, " Operations Research: Applications and Algorithms" 4rd edition, 2004.
Examinations:
One midterm exam and the final. The midterm exam will be held in class on
October 30. The final exam will be held on the date published by the
university. Make up exam questions will be MUCH MORE
DIFFICULT than regular exam questions.
General Rules:
Course Outline
& Reading Assignment:
|
|
Topics |
Time (week) |
Reading Assignment |
|
A |
Introduction |
0.5 |
|
|
B |
Probability review |
0.5 |
Chapter 12 |
|
C |
Inventory Models |
3 |
Chapters 15 & 16 |
|
D |
Markov chains |
2.5 |
Chapter 17 |
|
E |
Queueing theory |
2.5 |
Chapter 20 |
|
F |
Forecasting |
2 |
Chapter 24 |
|
G |
Simulation & Dynamic Programming |
1 |
Skim Chapters 18, 19, 21 |
About the topic of simulation
in this course:
This is a survey course. Each topic is covered up to the level that students learn how to apply the fundamental theories, except simulation. It is safe to say that simulation is one of the most useful tools for decision making under uncertainty. However, only demonstration and very basic ideas of simulation will be given in this course, because i) most students are already required to take simulation courses; ii) it is impossible to cover sufficient materials for implementing simulation within the limited time allocated in this course. For details about the simulation courses offered by the department, please visit
Homework Assignments:
Useful Links:
Go to Professor Chun-Hung Chen's Page